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Congress does not have the capability to design an economically beneficial carbon policy, as W-M clearly demonstrates. However, more importantly, Congress does not have the power to implement either an effective or economically beneficial carbon policy, since no carbon policy can be effective, no less economically beneficial, unless it is GLOBAL in scope. There is no country or group of countries which could halt global warming, assuming that reducing CO2 emissions could halt global warming.

W-M is not about reducing CO2 emissions; it is about raising revenue. Reducing CO2 emissions requires massive investments in low/no emissions facilities and equipment, by utilities and industries, commercial businesses and residential consumers. My estimate is ~$700 billion per year over the period, or nearly #30 trillion between now and 2050. Of course, with all of the spare investment capital floating around in the world economy today, investments at that level should be no major issue. However, the potential holders of senior secured debt may have some questions before they put their money on the line.

Have you heard of Muhammad Yunus, "Banker to the Poor" ? His latest book is called "Creating a World without Poverty" I heard him speak for the first time in LA at the NAFSA.org conference (an association of all the international educators of all the major universities in the USA)It's amazing that 98% of the poor that his banks lend to repay their "unsecured loans", whereas commercial bankers with secured loans have the "rich or richer" defaulting (ie: not being honroable !)

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Thanks for posting this Sarah. I'll use Guy's article as a reference for any clients going through layoffs.

Regardless of the reason it's challenging to have to end employment for anyone. I like Guy's no "bull shitakae" (as he would say) approach. It speaks to being authentic and taking responsibility and those are two things CEOs need in spades.

what is soon to be severe debt deflation.

Hence, no interest rate rises.

Flat for another few months, then down quickly to "stimulate the economy".

My 2c]]>

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Credit is in turn dependent on the reputation or credit worthiness of the entity which takes responsibility for the funds. Credit is also traded in financial markets. Credit is available, but demand remains flat. Asked in the July survey how demand for commercial and industrial loans has changed over the past three months, 61% of banks responded "about the same," while 9% said "moderately weaker." While it was good news that 30% responded "moderately stronger," it's not exactly a surge in demand.

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from McClatchy. A rundown of the damage, if you actually believe the report:

Based on this information, regulators decided which banks needed to raise more capital for worse-case scenarios. Those companies, and the amounts they must raise, are as follows:

* Bank of America $33.9 billion

* Wells Fargo $13.7 billion

* GMAC $11.5 billion

* Citigroup $5.5 billion

* SunTrust Banks $2.2 billion

* KeyCorp $1.8 billion

* Morgan Stanley $1.8 billion

* Fifth Third Bancorp $1.1 billion

* PNC Financial Services $600 million

Companies in the clear, freed from having to raise more capital, include Goldman Sachs, Bank of New York Mellon, J.P. Morgan Chase, BB&T, State Street, U.S. Bancorp, insurer MetLife, and credit card companies American Express and Capital One Financial.

But apparently if you look at things critically, as opposed to just regurgitating the figures that the banks themselves spoonfed to regulators/bank stenographers, things aren't quite so good:

Critical analysts, however, see a glass half empty in Thursday's stress-test results. "It's a very educated guess, based on a lot of information, but they can't see the future," said Douglas Elliott, a financial analyst at the Brookings Institution, a center-left research center. "If they were off by just 3 percent in 2010, that's $300 billion in additional capital (needed). I give them a lot of credit and it's a useful exercise . . . but prediction is extremely difficult."

Elliott projected capital needs from $100 billion to $200 billion, and wonders how accurate the regulators' projections are for losses that are expected on commercial and industrial loans and defaults on commercial mortgages.

"At least with residential (mortgages) the bad things that have happened are already in the numbers. These loans to businesses, we're just starting to see them, so there is a fair amount of uncertainty," he said.

Offering a grimmer projection, the International Monetary Fund in its April Global Financial Stability Report said that U.S. banks needed $275 billion in additional capital as of the end of 2008 and projected that $2.7 trillion in write-downs on U.S.-originated assets will be needed through the end of 2010. Under worse scenarios, the IMF said, losses could top $4 trillion, two thirds of them borne by global banks.

And here's the crux of the matter -the real reason why the stress tests were run in the first place:

The stress tests are as much about politics as they are about economics. They bought the Treasury Department roughly three months to put off tough political decisions such as how to conduct the auction of toxic assets through a public-private partnership now expected to begin in June.

~snip~

The stress-test exercise also deflected attention from the problem that hasn't gone away: How to value the trillions in toxic assets that are polluting bank balance sheets.

There it is. This whole exercise is just a way to postpone any real accountability until the geniuses who caused this problem can figure out a way to convince the gullible that they should pay billions for assets that aren't worth a dime. As Galbraith said in the interview I posted a couple days ago, these assets were created by fraud from the outset and because of that they have no worth. If this were made clear however, it would also become clear that these banks are essentially insolvent.

Even the American Enterprise Institute admits that these tests are nothing but PR and smoke and mirrors:

…the results signal a profitable future but paper over the present. "In that sense, they are doing it in part to build confidence, because if markets are more confident about banks, markets and the economy will do better. And if markets and the economy do better, banks do better," said Reinhart, now a scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, a conservative research organization.

The tests, he added, are "designed to build up market confidence and create the most favorable response as possible. I think they are trying to manage the media."

So as long as Timmy the Elf can keep the media from mentioning the emperor has no clothes, everything will be just fine!]]>

right questions to your financial advisor's and anybody else you can think of.

Knowledge is power. Learn about business and finance and you will be scared, but calm, like I am.]]>

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